UBTECH's stock soars 200% in two days, "humanoid robots" become a hot topic with

In just two trading days, the stock price of UBTECH, a humanoid robot concept stock, soared like a rocket with a cumulative maximum increase of over 200% during the trading sessions.

After a surge of 88% on March 6th, UBTECH's share price continued to skyrocket on the 7th, reaching a peak of 328 Hong Kong dollars, with its market value briefly surpassing 130 billion Hong Kong dollars. At midday, the closing price was reported at 278 Hong Kong dollars, up 37.28%, with a market value still standing at 116.4 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Known as the first "humanoid robot" stock in the Hong Kong stock market, industry insiders believe that this unusual fluctuation is due to the release of a combination of short-term emotions, rather than a validation of the company's actual producible profits and cash flow. Data shows that the company's main product only holds a market share of 2.8% and does not have a competitive advantage.

Future cash flow needs to be observed.

UBTECH's prospectus indicates that the company is primarily engaged in the design, production, commercialization, sales, marketing, and research and development of intelligent service robots and intelligent service robot solutions, covering consumer-level robots and electrical appliances, as well as customized enterprise-level intelligent service robots and intelligent service robot solutions for education, logistics, and other industries.

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Yang Sen, an analyst at Guoyuan International, said that as a representative of new quality productive forces with high technical requirements and optimistic future demand, the humanoid robot industry has clearly become a focus of national manufacturing development. It is expected that UBTECH will maintain its main contributions from educational and logistics robots in the short term, and the revenue contribution from humanoid robot business will increase.

In response to the recent unusual fluctuations of the stock, Lin Jiayi, General Manager of Xuanjia Fund, analyzed to the First Financial Daily reporter that the unusual fluctuation is due to the release of a combination of short-term emotions; if the cash flow is not observed, it will fall again after the emotions subside, and it is currently difficult to verify whether it can generate real profits and cash flow.

UBTECH went public in Hong Kong on December 19, 2023, and began trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 29 of the same month. It was later included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect target, which took effect on March 4, 2024.

From the fiscal year 2020 to 2022 and the first six months of 2023, UBTECH's revenue was 740 million yuan, 817 million yuan, 1.008 billion yuan, and 261 million yuan, respectively, mainly from the sales of intelligent service robots and intelligent service robot solutions. The losses during the above financial periods were 707 million yuan, 918 million yuan, 987 million yuan, and 548 million yuan, respectively.

The financial reports show that the sales of educational and logistics intelligent robots and intelligent robot solutions contributed most of the company's revenue, accounting for 84.4%, 79.8%, 77.3%, and 58.4% during the aforementioned periods, respectively.Market Share 2.8%

Currently, the intelligent service robot industry is one with relatively low concentration.

UBTECH Robotics claims that, according to Frost & Sullivan's data, the company ranks third in China's intelligent service robot and intelligent service robot solution industry in terms of revenue in 2022, and is one of the two companies among the top five that possess full-stack core technology capabilities.

The prospectus shows that the market share of the industry leader, Dafa Technology, is only 6.4%, and the second place, Hikvision Robotics, has a market share of 4.6%, which is striving for a listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; while UBTECH, as the third in the industry, only has a market share of 2.8%.

The prospectus states that the competition in China's intelligent service robot and intelligent service robot solution industry is fierce and fragmented, as it is still in its early stages, with only a few participants able to provide full-stack core technology (including computer vision, voice interaction, servo drivers, motion planning and control, and positioning navigation), and many industry participants are developing the same or similar technologies in the hope of entering the market.

Everbright Securities analyst Zhou Ershuang believes that the application scenarios for intelligent service robots are rich, and multiple factors drive the development of the industry: including policies, artificial intelligence technology, future labor shortages, and increased consumer acceptance, the combined efforts of these four factors have created market demand for intelligent service robots, and the market size is expected to increase in the future.

According to Frost & Sullivan's data, although the penetration rate of intelligent service robots and intelligent service robot solutions in China is still relatively low, it is expected that from 2022 to 2028, the market size of the global and Chinese intelligent service robot and intelligent service robot solution markets will increase by a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% and 23.5%, respectively, from $23.5 billion and RMB 51.6 billion to $62.8 billion and RMB 183.2 billion.