The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with Apple's stock

* U.S. stocks continue to consolidate

* Apple abandons electric car development plan

* U.S. consumer confidence index falls for the first time in four months

On Tuesday, February 27th, local time, the U.S. stock market continued its consolidation trend. Following last week's surge driven by artificial intelligence, the market's focus shifted to key economic data such as U.S. GDP and inflation to be released later this week, which are believed to potentially influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule.

Overseas, the three major indices showed mixed performances. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 96.82 points, or 0.25%, to 38,972.41; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 59.05 points, or 0.37%, to 16,035.30; the S&P 500 Index gained 8.65 points, or 0.17%, to 5,078.18.

Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closing up 2.1%. Among popular stocks, Li Auto surged by over 11%, NetEase by over 5%, iQIYI and Weibo by over 4%, Futu Holdings by over 3%, and NIO by over 2%.

Advertisement

Apple Inc. closed up 0.81%. Media reports suggest that Apple will abandon its decade-long electric car development plan and increase its focus on generative artificial intelligence. It is said that Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams and Vice President Kevin Lynch, who was in charge of the project, jointly made this decision. The two executives informed employees that the project will begin to wind down, and many employees engaged in car research and development will be reassigned to the artificial intelligence department.

On the 27th, a team of strategists led by Venu Krishna at Barclays raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 Index from 4,800 to 5,300 for 2024. The team stated that despite high interest rates, the U.S. stock market will continue to perform strongly in 2024 due to the robust technology sector and the resilience of the economy. The strategist team also raised their full-year earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 from $233 to $235.

Standard Chartered's Wealth Management division stated that, supported by strong corporate earnings, U.S. stocks remain their top choice in global equities. Analysts at the bank said in a report that the latest earnings season provided strong support for the technology and communications sectors, with the so-called "Big Six" (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia) seeing a 70% year-over-year surge in profits, while the overall growth rate of the S&P 500 Index was 9.6%. Additionally, historically, the period before the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has been favorable for global stock markets, especially U.S. stocks. "We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, which means that the Fed's current pause will be slightly longer than the average pause time over the past 30 years (9 months), leaving room for further gains in U.S. stocks," the report stated.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, believes that: "Before the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, investors will not significantly diversify into small and mid-cap stocks—they want to continue to wait and see."Currently, over 90% of the S&P 500 component companies have reported their financial statements. Due to the cost-saving and efficiency-enhancing capabilities brought about by artificial intelligence (AI) and the increased market demand, large technology companies have been able to maintain high profit growth and strong balance sheets in a high-interest-rate environment. However, there are concerns in the market about the stock market growing too quickly.

CICC Wealth Management stated that the growth expectations for technology stocks are largely due to the high expectations for the AI concept, such as the recent launch of Sora, which has once again sparked an AI wave. But for now, only upstream input products represented by AI chips are facing prosperity (Nvidia, AMD, etc., have all achieved significant profit growth), but with Google's TPU as a representative, major leading technology companies are also developing their own chips to challenge Nvidia's monopoly position. As market competition intensifies, the current high profit margins of AI chips are likely not sustainable in the long term.

In terms of other individual stocks, Norwegian Cruise Line rose by 19.84%, with record high bookings for 2024. The company expects earnings per share of 12 cents in the first quarter, while analysts expected a loss of 20 cents.

Lowe's Companies Inc. rose by 1.76%, with net sales in the fourth quarter exceeding expectations, yet home improvement spending by Americans continues to decline.

Macy's Inc. rose by 2.39%, with net sales of $8.12 billion in the fourth fiscal quarter, compared to the expected $8.11 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.45, compared to the expected $1.99.

Video conferencing giant Zoom Video rose by 8%, with fourth-quarter results exceeding expectations, and announced a $1.5 billion stock repurchase plan.

In terms of economic data, the largest decline in U.S. durable goods orders since April 2020 was recorded in January, indicating that soaring borrowing costs and concerns about demand are causing U.S. companies to scale back expansion plans at the beginning of the year.

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced on the 27th that, seasonally adjusted, U.S. home prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month in December 2023, the smallest increase since January 2023. Forexlive analyst Adam Button believes: "Some early signs indicate that demand for U.S. housing has weakened, which is likely a response to the rise in long-term interest rates."

In the fourth quarter of last year, the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States soared to a 20-year high of 7.79%, then dropped significantly, ending the year at 6.61%. Analysts say this has released some of the pent-up demand from homebuyers, while ongoing inventory shortages have driven U.S. home prices to continue to rise.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that due to a sharp decline in commercial aircraft orders, U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.1% month-on-month in January of this year, the largest drop since April 2020, exceeding the market's expected 5% decline.The Conference Board, a leading economic research institution in the United States, has released a report showing that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell for the first time in four months in February.

The report indicates that the Consumer Confidence Index for February, as measured by the Conference Board, stood at 106.7, which is lower than the revised figure of 110.9 for January and also below market expectations. Breaking it down, the index reflecting current conditions dropped to 147.2, while the index reflecting future expectations declined to 79.8. Consumers' expectations for the average inflation rate over the next 12 months continued to slow down, remaining at the lowest level since 2020.

Furthermore, the auction for 7-year U.S. Treasury notes, worth $42 billion, had a winning bid rate of 4.327%, which is 21.8 basis points higher than the winning bid rate for the Treasury note auction of the same month last year, showing weak demand, similar to the 5-year Treasury note auction on Monday.

In terms of commodities, international crude oil futures prices closed higher on Tuesday. The prospects for a ceasefire negotiation between Palestine and Israel are uncertain, and the market expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to extend the production cut beyond the first quarter.

By the close, the futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery in April at the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $1.29, a rise of 1.7%, to $78.87 per barrel.

On the same day, the April gold futures rose by 0.3%, to $2,044.10 per ounce. The weak performance of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pushed up the price of gold.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.Required fields are marked *