Firstly, let's give a thumbs up to today's A-shares! The market was dominated by fluctuations and upward movements throughout the day, with indices, sectors, and individual stocks collectively fluctuating higher, seemingly annihilating the bearish forces and exhibiting a bullish momentum, significantly enhancing the profitability effect on the market.
Seeing the volume increase and rise in today's A-shares, there must still be many investors in the dark about why there was a sudden surge in volume today. Who is behind this rally? With these two questions in mind, let's conduct a detailed analysis of today's market.
Firstly: The real force behind today's volume increase and rise in A-shares comes from the collective lift of the securities sector. The rise in the broad market index also relies on the securities sector, and the significant increase in trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is also due to the securities sector. This is because the securities sector has received a major policy stimulus, with Guosheng Financial Holdings hitting the daily limit, igniting a collective lift in other securities stocks, thus becoming the true driver of today's volume increase and rise in A-shares.
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Secondly: The collective volume increase and lift of the securities sector is just the trigger, the reassurance for the rise. Additionally, there is another strong driving force, which is the technology stocks, led by communication equipment that saw a massive surge of over 6% during the session, leading to a wave of limit-ups; the internet, software services, and components are also collectively lifting. The rise in technology stocks has driven the lift of small and medium-sized thematic stocks, and a general rise in the market has thus unfolded.
Thirdly: The entry of incremental funds is also the true driving force behind today's volume increase and rise in A-shares. Recently, the trading volume of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has been maintained within 800 billion, while today's A-shares volume has at least broken through the trillion mark, with an additional 200 billion in funds in a single day. This influx of funds has injected fresh blood into A-shares, which is the driving force behind the volume increase and rise.
Fourthly: It stems from the fact that A-shares have been suppressed by the 3100 point level recently, with every slight rise being met with selling pressure from the market, meaning that the bulls have been suppressed for a long time. Today, the bulls took advantage of the favorable situation of the securities sector to launch an attack and break through upwards again, but unfortunately, the breakthrough was not successful. It seems that the annual moving average position above is not so easy to break through.
Will A-shares continue to rise significantly on Monday next week?
The collective rise of securities and technology has driven A-shares to a significant volume increase, and the influx of new funds has provided momentum for A-shares. These bullish forces are expected to continue into Monday, so we remain bullish on the A-shares market for Monday.
It is predicted that A-shares will open higher on Monday, with the securities sector continuing to rise with the influx of new funds, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the 3100 point level. However, after the breakthrough, other sectors will enter a phase of differentiation, with a high probability of a decline in technology stocks, indicating that A-shares will rise and then fall on Monday, entering a differentiated trend, making it difficult to continue to rise significantly.
The outlook for A-shares on Monday is bullish, but not significantly so. Instead, there is a concern about a rise and fall trend, for two reasons.Reason One: The securities brokerage sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy support likely to fuel a burst in trading activity for 2 to 3 trading days. Although it is not anticipated that the securities sector will experience a collective surge next Monday, it will undoubtedly provide absolute support to the overall market index. As long as the securities sector continues to rise, the A-share market on the following Monday is bound to be bullish, so let's wait and see.
Reason Two: It is undeniable that the securities sector will support the rise of the A-share market next Monday. However, considering the selling pressure above 3100 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, there is concern that large-scale capital may take the opportunity to sell high when investors are entering the market, attracting a group of buyers to help the main force cash out. Once the main force cashes out, the market is bound to become fragmented, so the probability of a high and then falling trend is relatively large.
From the above analysis, it is clear that behind today's high volume surge in the A-share market, the main reason is the securities sector being ignited by policy benefits, acting as a catalyst. The rise in securities has given the bulls a sense of reassurance, allowing them to confidently take long positions, which in turn has driven today's one-sided rise in the A-share market. Following today's increase, the market is expected to be bullish next week, but with differentiation. While taking long positions, one must not blindly chase highs.
The emergence of a wave of securities trading at the upper limit provides a boost to the A-share bulls, encouraging them to hold and go long next week. However, it is crucial not to blindly chase highs and to be wary of large-scale capital cashing out at higher levels. Blindly chasing highs is a major taboo.
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