On Wednesday morning, the A-share market closed, with foreign capital selling off 4.3 billion in half a day, and domestic capital selling off 28.4 billion, with more than 4,200 individual stocks falling. Will the A-share market take a plunge? Please read carefully and patiently, a word of conscience for all stock investors!
First: Today's A-share market on Wednesday has left many stock investors feeling extremely torn. It's really not easy to be an A-share investor, they are really too difficult, why do I say that?
The first reason is that today's A-share market saw a volume contraction of 510 billion yuan with a decline of 10 points, with more than 4,200 individual stocks selling off, and only over 1,000 rising. There are more than 5,300 listed companies, but there are too few occasions when they can rise together.
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The second reason is that in just half a day, foreign capital sold off 4.3 billion yuan, and domestic main force capital sold off 28.4 billion yuan. The market itself did not have much bearish news today. However, the main force institutions and foreign capital sold off almost at will, and their logic is as elusive as a needle in a haystack, making it hard to grasp.
The third reason is that across the entire A-share market, sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and securities have been continuously adjusting since March 19th. Especially the "securities doctor" under heavy regulation, but the securities sector has mostly been falling since the Spring Festival.
The fourth reason is that this morning, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by more than 2.5%, the Hang Seng Index rose by nearly 2%, and the FTSE China A50 futures index also turned red and rose. But the A-share market can still sell off against the trend, my big A-share market is really independent and willful, always moving forward alone!
Second: So, will the A-share market take a plunge today?
Firstly, this morning, the Shanghai 50 and the Beijing 50 both closed with gains. However, the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, CSI 1000, and Shenzhen Component Index all fell by more than 1%. These indices had just rebounded for a day yesterday and are diving again today.
Secondly, from a technical perspective, the ChiNext Index may only have significant support near the 60-day moving average, and the STAR 50 is again in a bearish engulfing pattern, maintaining a weak and volatile trend today.However, the Shanghai Composite Index dipped to 3031 today, precisely at the support level of yesterday. For the A-shares to close in the black and not fall has already been the greatest expectation, so it is anticipated that today's support at 3031 will hold and there will be no plunge.
Thirdly: A few heartfelt words for all stock market investors. Regarding the broad market index, I told all investors to load up on positions at 2635 before the Spring Festival and to hold onto their stocks until 3090. Two weeks ago, I also mentioned that I expected to see pressure around 3090~3094. Before March 19th, it reached 3090 twice, but due to personal matters in the past two weeks, I did not have time to share further.
For the entire A-share market, as everyone who has been around for a while knows, my style is essentially focused on swing and short-term trading. Just like the A-share market, which has been hovering around 3000 points for so many years, there are also occasional sectors that bring vibrancy to the market. Therefore, as experienced investors understand, the A-share market is characterized by structural trends, swing, and short-term trading. The principle is the same as in life: a tree may die if it is moved, but a person thrives by being adaptable. Find methods for success, as stock trading is akin to the philosophy of life!
Fourthly: Looking at the global financial markets, since March 19th, the external stock markets have essentially maintained high-level fluctuations, with A-shares consolidating around 3000 points, which is part of the second wave of consolidation. This week, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have already rebounded and risen for three days, so it is highly likely that A-shares will not plunge this afternoon. In summary, for A-shares today, holding support at 3031 without falling is already quite good, and if the index can close in the red, it would be a cause for gratitude and tears of joy!
Finally, the two major directions given for this week, minor metals, and lead-zinc have still had some movement in the past three days, and the automobile manufacturing sector has also maintained a decent bottom rebound trend.
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