Good morning everyone, it's Friday morning today. We've learned about the latest three major news from the market that may affect the upcoming A-share market trend. The US stock market's Nasdaq and S&P 500 have rebounded with a medium-sized positive candle, gold has hit a new historical high, and A-shares have maintained a volume of 800 billion yuan with a defense at the 3000-point mark. Will there be a rebound in the later market? Here are the honest thoughts from all 200 million shareholders:
Firstly, yesterday, the European Central Bank sent the clearest signal of interest rate cuts. Boosted by this, the three major US stock indices rebounded last night. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.01%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.68%, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.74%.
Large-cap technology stocks rose across the board, with Apple and Nvidia gaining over 4%, Google gaining over 2%, and Amazon gaining 1%. The rise in the US stock market was mainly driven by the increase in technology stocks.
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Secondly, international precious metals continued to rise, with spot silver up over 2%, currently at $28.43 per ounce; spot gold rose by 1.7%, at $2374 per ounce, continuing to set a new historical high. The $2400 mark for spot gold will be a watershed for the phase, and whether it can break through and hold steady is a key signal.
Thirdly, at the same time, the market has received three major pieces of news that may affect the upcoming A-share market trend, so it is essential to pay close attention.
News one: The Development and Reform Commission stated that China's annual equipment investment and renewal demand in key areas such as industry and agriculture is over 5 trillion yuan, and the demand for the replacement of automobiles and home appliances is also at the trillion-yuan level.
Interpretation: The equipment renewal plan will be introduced soon, with a huge market space, and it is also supported by favorable policies. This is beneficial for the consumption of automobiles and other large consumer goods. The construction machinery sector has been continuously rebounding with increased volume recently, with funds having been positioned in advance. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but it is not advisable to chase short-term gains; it is better to absorb on dips and during consolidation.
News two: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the all-round and in-depth empowerment of artificial intelligence in new industrialization and accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces.
Interpretation: The development of new industrialization and new quality productive forces is a key policy support direction this year, and there will undoubtedly be repeated policy benefits. In the stock market, the sectors of new industrialization and new quality productive forces are currently consolidating within the 2nd wave interval.
News three: Several top securities firms have suspended the addition of new short-selling sources? Verification: It is true that the lending of sources has been suspended at present, and the resumption time is unclear.Interpretation: According to last night's Shanghai Securities News report, several leading securities firms have indeed suspended the addition of new short-selling sources. This is a good thing. However, it is likely that each securities firm is different, it is the firm's own behavior, and it is only a portion of the securities firms that have suspended.
The suspension is good, but this kind of back and forth is frustrating. It would be better if a policy is introduced to directly clarify the suspension.
Fourthly, the question arises, will the A-share market rebound after the volume shrank by 80 billion yesterday to hold 3000 points?
Firstly, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from 2635 to 3090 over a period of 5 weeks, which is the first wave of the rise, and 2635 remains the turning point for the A-share market's reversal and rise in the Year of the Dragon.
Secondly, the Shanghai Index has maintained a range-bound consolidation for 4 consecutive weeks from 3090, but it has not broken below 3000 points. It has stood above the 10-week moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, which means that 3000 points will continue to hold.
Furthermore, technically, the Shanghai Index has formed a W-bottom pattern around 3000 points again in the past 4 weeks, indicating a stable rebound. The market trend in the past 5 days has been basically the same as the 5 days of decline and consolidation last week, so 3000 points will hold and rebound.
Today's support level is 3024, and the resistance level is 3054.
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